SoxIlliniRob wrote:blondy28 wrote:SoxIlliniRob wrote:blondy28 wrote:Rob, I saw on MSNBC that your district is showing as one "on the move". I saw a poll today that Underwood is up by 7 over Hultgren now. Saw another poll today that Beto and Cruz are tied.
She's running a really hard campaign (Underwood). She is literally everywhere right now. Doing meet and greets everywhere. Knocking on doors. Saying hello to people having lunch in restaurants. I noticed Silver moved her from slight underdog to 7 in 10 favorite. Still showing Roskam as slight favorite.
538 is very confusing to me. Underwood just moved ahead in one poll. Of course, there are only 2 polls total on that race, but in the Lite, Classic, and Deluxe versions, they have Underwood's chances pretty high. By contrast, Casten has been ahead in 3 of 6 polls, including the most recent 3, and 538 shows him favored in both the Lite and Deluxe versions, but Roskam with a slight edge in the Classic version.
I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. He has his nerdy analyses that he applies and he's usually pretty close to right. These house races are really hard to predict, even with polling because they are such small sample sizes of voters. For now, it at least appears that the House will be blue, but I'll not count any chickens until I see it live on the news. 2016 turned me into a cynic.
Not losing sleep...and the comment wasn't really about who would win. Logically, I would imagine that lite is the most basic...and I think it's just an average of all available polls. Then Classic drills down a little more, and Deluxe even more. The fact that Lite has Casten winning, Classic has him losing, and Deluxe has him winning by a lot seems counter intuitive.