Home
sharpy wrote:
Oh yea, Nate Silver.....the guy who predicted Clinton in a landslide
He absolutely did not predict any such thing, Tim. In fact in the days up to the election he went out of his way to say that Trump had better than a puncher's chance of winning due to the high number of undeclared in most polling data. it was always something like Hillary 48, Trump 44, undecided 8%. He said most polling predictions were under the assumption that the undecideds would split 50/50, but continually noted that it might not break that way and that Trump would win if it broke in his favor on the undecideds. On the day before the election, Silver had his percentages around 68% Clinton, and 32% chance Trump wins. Obama was at 80% to Romney's 20%. Current number is House blue 84.5% and House red 15.5%. He's still saying the GOP can pull this off depending on where the undecideds vote.
Silver had Clinton winning the national vote by about 3.2% and she won by about 2%. Undeclared voters went about 60/40 to Trump. Some believe it's because Trump voters were embarrassed to admit it aloud. He had noted that there were some strong indicators that she had a big chance of losing if her majority vote margin were 2% or less. And that's exactly where she was and she barely lost.
The New York Times had Clinton in an easy win, but that was based on something far less analytical that Silver's analysis.
