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    sharpy
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    bad omen

    Post by sharpy on Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:31 pm

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    cream919
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by cream919 on Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:03 pm

    I told you that this blue wave idea is a crock of shit. It has always ignored one fundamental truism about politics that hasn't changed for a hundred years or more...and for all the bullshit that's going on at the moment this truism will still likely determine how this election could turn out. It's easy...after all is said and done your average American casts his/her ballot based on the size of their bank pocketbooks and wallets. If the economy is going well the party in charge benefits...it's as simple as that. Right now the economy is pretty decent....that benefits Trump and the republicans. Sorry folks, doesn't matter if he has anything to do with it or not....he's the beneficiary. And you know goddam well he'll milk it for all it's worth.

    You want to see this asshole go down? Then hope that the economy tanks. His backers will scatter like flies. A bad economy is the ruin of any administration. It'll do what the progressives can't.
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    alohafri
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by alohafri on Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:40 am

    cream919 wrote:

    You want to see this asshole go down? Then hope that the economy tanks. His backers will scatter like flies. A bad economy is the ruin of any administration. It'll do what the progressives can't.

    Not as long as he can keep them chanting "Lock her up!" Every one of his base could lose their job and have it directly attributed to Trump and they will support him as long as he says two words...Hillary Clinton.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:54 am

    I like how it's come out that his phone conversations are being spied by competing countries and intel, but all of the Hillary email screamers are no longer appalled by this kind of breach. Now it's apparently all fine. Lock her up...but don't lock him up.
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:57 am

    cream919 wrote:I told you that this blue wave idea is a crock of shit. It has always ignored one fundamental truism about politics that hasn't changed for a hundred years or more...and for all the bullshit that's going on at the moment this truism will still likely determine how this election could turn out. It's easy...after all is said and done your average American casts his/her ballot based on the size of their bank pocketbooks and wallets. If the economy is going well the party in charge benefits...it's as simple as that. Right now the economy is pretty decent....that benefits Trump and the republicans. Sorry folks, doesn't matter if he has anything to do with it or not....he's the beneficiary. And you know goddam well he'll milk it for all it's worth.

    You want to see this asshole go down? Then hope that the economy tanks. His backers will scatter like flies. A bad economy is the ruin of any administration. It'll do what the progressives can't.

    So you don't believe the dems will take the house and pick up governorships?
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:58 am

    I wouldn't put too much stock in who is early voting. Repubs typically take advantage of early voting. There are millions of independents voting and the polling says they are voting blue almost 2-1. I rank as an independent and so does my wife, for example.
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:21 am

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:I wouldn't put too much stock in who is early voting.  Repubs typically take advantage of early voting.  There are millions of independents voting and the polling says they are voting blue almost 2-1.  I rank as an independent and so does my wife, for example.

    How do you "rank as an independent"?  Nobody in my family has a party affiliation.
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    alohafri
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by alohafri on Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:06 am

    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:I wouldn't put too much stock in who is early voting.  Repubs typically take advantage of early voting.  There are millions of independents voting and the polling says they are voting blue almost 2-1.  I rank as an independent and so does my wife, for example.

    How do you "rank as an independent"?  

    Don't bathe.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:15 am

    I am not a registered Dem. Rtgistered indy. I never declared a party. When we early voted, it asked us D, R, or no party. Always click NP.
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    alohafri
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by alohafri on Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:17 am

    Is my mic on?
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:22 am

    alohafri wrote:Is my mic on?

    Don't forget to tip your waitress.
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    alohafri
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by alohafri on Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:58 am

    blondy28 wrote:
    alohafri wrote:Is my mic on?

    Don't forget to tip your waitress.
    cheers cheers cheers cheers

    frank bonifacic
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by frank bonifacic on Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:23 pm

    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:I wouldn't put too much stock in who is early voting.  Repubs typically take advantage of early voting.  There are millions of independents voting and the polling says they are voting blue almost 2-1.  I rank as an independent and so does my wife, for example.

    How do you "rank as an independent"?  Nobody in my family has a party affiliation.
    I have also heard that in areas there is a huge surge in absentee ballots-and that there were very long lines in African American areas that far exceed the past.
    In the same manner, I heard that -I think on a news  show- reporter asked about 12-14 college kids , including Hispanic and black, and asked who was going to vote. No one raised their hand. But that may be typical at 18-22, more interested in drinking, partying and looking for love.
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:32 pm

    frank bonifacic wrote:
    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:I wouldn't put too much stock in who is early voting.  Repubs typically take advantage of early voting.  There are millions of independents voting and the polling says they are voting blue almost 2-1.  I rank as an independent and so does my wife, for example.

    How do you "rank as an independent"?  Nobody in my family has a party affiliation.
    I have also heard that in areas there is a huge surge in absentee ballots-and that there were very long lines in African American areas that far exceed the past.
    In the same manner, I heard that -I think on a news  show- reporter asked about 12-14 college kids , including Hispanic and black, and asked who was going to vote. No one raised their hand. But that may be typical at 18-22, more interested in drinking, partying and looking for love.

    My kids and their friends are extremely politically engaged, so they're voting for sure.  My son is actually in Kwame Raul's son's frat.  The entire frat is very politically engaged.  There was actually some furniture thrown after the 2016 election.
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    cream919
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by cream919 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:03 pm

    Not as long as he can keep them chanting "Lock her up!" Every one of his base could lose their job and have it directly attributed to Trump and they will support him as long as he says two words...Hillary Clinton.


    *******************************************************************


    I disagree. "It's the economy stupid!"
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    cream919
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by cream919 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:05 pm

    So you don't believe the dems will take the house and pick up governorships?


    ****************************************************************************


    I think 50/50 and wouldn't be surprised if the republicans hold.
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:20 pm

    cream919 wrote:So you don't believe the dems will take the house and pick up governorships?


    ****************************************************************************


    I think 50/50 and wouldn't be surprised if the republicans hold.

    Going back to "it's the economy stupid".  My district...Illinois 6...we're getting fucked by the tax plan, so that's our economy.  Roskam is running scared.  He actually did a meet and greet in the neighborhood just north of mine.  That's unheard of for an incumbent who's been in office over a decade to meet with people in someone's living room.  Still a very close race...it's lean democratic.  I think there's more than a 50/50 shot on governorships.  I'm no fan of JB Pritzker, but he's been up on Rauner by up to 22 points.  Mind you, I'm not voting for him because I think he's a racist.  I'm writing in Pat Quinn.  It's also looking like Michigan will go blue.  Florida perhaps as well.  And Wisconsin.  Iowa dem ahead in polls, too.  The senate was always a long shot, but I think we're 70/30 on governorships and the house.  Nate Silver gives dems an 84.8% chance of taking the house.  He's predicting 23.9 states to have Dem governors.  Not sure how many have dem governors now,
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    cream919
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by cream919 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:22 pm

    I hope you're right Blondy. I'll just believe it when I see it.
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    sharpy
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by sharpy on Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:43 pm

    I'm no fan of JB Pritzker, but he's been up on Rauner by up to 22 points.  Mind you, I'm not voting for him because I think he's a racist.  I'm writing in Pat Quinn


    So, you've learned nothing from the 2016 election? You'd rather vote for a guy who has NO chance of winning and allow the opposition party to win?.....Might as well write in ginger baker.  At this point in our history, I don't really care what the democrat has done, said, or looks like - if she/he's not a fascist, I'm voting for him/her.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:02 am

    I'm with Sharpy here. I will go back to taking the high road and voting my conscience when the GOP returns to acting sane. Currently, any vote not against them is a vote for their brand of insanity.

    Additionally, we need Dem rule in Illinois so that they can draw new districts in Illinois and try countering GOP gerrymandering. I hate it, but that is how you play the game.
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:06 am

    In fact, I would request that Illinois draw them so ridiculously and unfairly that not a single Repub can win a House seat. Then, the GOP would sue and maybe SCOTUS would rule gerrymandering unconstitutional. I think we will see some very extreme redrawings in 2020. As it stands, statheads say Dems will need to win overall House popular vote by 6-7% in order to take just a 1 member majority. We are a government of minority rule right now across two chambers, and possibly all three after the midterms. Pretty hard to feel patriotic for that bullshit.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:04 pm

    cream919 wrote:I hope you're right Blondy. I'll just believe it when I see it.

    I remain cynical, too, like you.  That said, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight statistical analysis does a nice job of summing it up and taking out the emotion.  Statistically right now, Dems have a better chance of taking control of the House than Obama's odds were of beating Romney in 2012, on the day before the election.  That doesn't mean it's a done deal, but Silver melds every single poll together and adjusts them all for unintended biases.  He does a great job.  I suggest looking at it sometime if you're up for some nerd time.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    From the sounds of it, the Dems are a lock for approximately tying the GOP in the House.  Beyond that, there will be another 40 or so nip and tuck races that can go either way.  If you figure the Dems for even picking up a few of those 40, then it's all over and the House is blue.  I just find it appalling that Dems need to win by 7% or so to even have a chance to hold a minimal majority.  What kind of fucked up government is this?
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:15 pm

    sharpy wrote:I'm no fan of JB Pritzker, but he's been up on Rauner by up to 22 points.  Mind you, I'm not voting for him because I think he's a racist.  I'm writing in Pat Quinn


    So, you've learned nothing from the 2016 election? You'd rather vote for a guy who has NO chance of winning and allow the opposition party to win?.....Might as well write in ginger baker.  At this point in our history, I don't really care what the democrat has done, said, or looks like - if she/he's not a fascist, I'm voting for him/her.

    The last poll had Pritzker up by 22 points.   Rauner was pegged by a conservative magazine as the worst governor in the country.   Since he signed an abortion bill, the right turned on him and many of them are probably going to vote for the independent conservative who entered the race.   If Pritzker's lead drops to single digits, I will revisit my plans, but at this point, I'm writing in Pat Quinn. My approach here cannot be compared to Wisconsin or Michigan in 2016, because although the polls showed Hillary ahead in those states, it was within the margin of error.  Unless the margin of error is 23 points, I'm pretty certain Pritzker is going to run away with this thing.
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:23 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:In fact, I would request that Illinois draw them so ridiculously and unfairly that not a single Repub can win a House seat.  Then, the GOP would sue and maybe SCOTUS would rule gerrymandering unconstitutional.  I think we will see some very extreme redrawings in 2020.  As it stands, statheads say Dems will need to win overall House popular vote by 6-7% in order to take just a 1 member majority.  We are a government of minority rule right now across two chambers, and possibly all three after the midterms.  Pretty hard to feel patriotic for that bullshit.

    If only there were a way that that could be done.  There aren't enough blue areas downstate for that to work.  My own district was drawn by dems to be a Republican district...pulling as many republicans out of the bordering areas into one district, leaving the surrounding districts blue.
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    sharpy
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by sharpy on Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:38 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    cream919 wrote:I hope you're right Blondy. I'll just believe it when I see it.

    I remain cynical, too, like you.  That said, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight statistical analysis does a nice job of summing it up and taking out the emotion.  Statistically right now, Dems have a better chance of taking control of the House than Obama's odds were of beating Romney in 2012, on the day before the election.  That doesn't mean it's a done deal, but Silver melds every single poll together and adjusts them all for unintended biases.  He does a great job.  I suggest looking at it sometime if you're up for some nerd time.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    From the sounds of it, the Dems are a lock for approximately tying the GOP in the House.  Beyond that, there will be another 40 or so nip and tuck races that can go either way.  If you figure the Dems for even picking up a few of those 40, then it's all over and the House is blue.  I just find it appalling that Dems need to win by 7% or so to even have a chance to hold a minimal majority.  What kind of fucked up government is this?

    Oh yea, Nate Silver.....the guy who predicted Clinton in a landslide

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