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    bad omen

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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:15 am

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    blondy28 wrote:Rob, I saw on MSNBC that your district is showing as one "on the move".  I saw a poll today that Underwood is up by 7 over Hultgren now.  Saw another poll today that Beto and Cruz are tied.

    She's running a really hard campaign (Underwood).  She is literally everywhere right now.  Doing meet and greets everywhere.  Knocking on doors.  Saying hello to people having lunch in restaurants.  I noticed Silver moved her from slight underdog to 7 in 10 favorite.  Still showing Roskam as slight favorite.

    538 is very confusing to me.  Underwood just moved ahead in one poll.  Of course, there are only 2 polls total on that race, but in the Lite, Classic, and Deluxe versions, they have Underwood's chances pretty high.  By contrast, Casten has been ahead in 3 of 6 polls, including the most recent 3, and 538 shows him favored in both the Lite and Deluxe versions, but Roskam with a slight edge in the Classic version.

    I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.  He has his nerdy analyses that he applies and he's usually pretty close to right.  These house races are really hard to predict, even with polling because they are such small sample sizes of voters.  For now, it at least appears that the House will be blue, but I'll not count any chickens until I see it live on the news.  2016 turned me into a cynic.

    Not losing sleep...and the comment wasn't really about who would win.  Logically, I would imagine that lite is the most basic...and I think it's just an average of all available polls.  Then Classic drills down a little more, and Deluxe even more.  The fact that Lite has Casten winning, Classic has him losing, and Deluxe has him winning by a lot seems counter intuitive.
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    sharpy
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by sharpy on Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:48 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:It'll be interesting to see the crisis that Dems will undergo if they win the overall House vote count by let's say 7%, but still remain in a slight minority in overall seats.

    After Kavanaugh, Trump winning with a minority of the votes, Garland, Citizens United, SCOTUS appointing Bush president vs. Gore even when Gore even had the most votes in Florida, and with the GOP senate majority being representative of only about 40-42% of the nation's citizens, the Democratic party is on the edge of losing faith in our system, and for good reason.  

    I know it's become Bobby's thing to pick on Tim for being too hysterical in this realm, but if this pans out as I have described above, we're going to see a certain pall of gloom and doom fall over the Democratic party that is going to be really ugly to watch.  We'll then have all three chambers holding power despite receiving a minority of American votes, along with SCOTUS allowing them to write legislation and make executive decisions that further benefit their power.  Most of the expert types suggest that the Dems need somewhere between a 6 and 10% voter majority in order to take control of the House.  That's just not right, and it's why gerrymandering is the biggest issue to me, and it's why I'll vote straight Dem in Illinois (despite boogeyman Madigan) until gerrymandering is fixed.  My biggest concern right now is to be able to gerrymander the state to allow zero GOP districts, until they change the pathetic rules of the game.  If states like Ohio and Texas and others can make it nearly impossible for Dems to win seats there, then we loser Dems need to fight fire with fire.


    Its called a fascist dictatorship ….the only option may be to break the county into two - I'd be willing to move anywhere.  btw - speaking of Bobby Rosebowl - search the post after Obama won in 2012 about his opinion that the tea party was DEAD ...as was the GOP .. 
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:14 pm

    Not looking good so far.
    Silver real time forecast now has House as a 50/50 proposition, based on trends.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:48 pm

    Underwood and Casten both holding big leads.  I'm feeling a little better....
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:38 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Underwood and Casten both holding big leads.  I'm feeling a little better....

    Casten knocked off that fucker Roskam!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Let's go Lauren!
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:48 pm

    She's winning, but vote counts are coming in slowly where I'm looking.  I can't find anything that says Casten won.
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:51 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:She's winning, but vote counts are coming in slowly where I'm looking.  I can't find anything that says Casten won.

    Called everywhere.  Politico.  NBC.  CNN.  AP.  NY Times.
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:01 pm

    Lauren Underwood won!
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:03 pm

    Amazing to see such a wipeout of the reds in the House and what looks like a wipeout of the blues in the senate.  I'd rather have seen the Dems win the House by just a few seats and at least hold their number of Senate seats.  It might be 55-45 after this is over.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:04 pm

    Walker is losing!
    Nutjob Steve King is losing.  
    Loved seeing Pete Sessions lose in Texas.
    Looks like a Dem or two won seats in Utah.
    Looks like Dems won a seat or two in KS and won the governorship easily.
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:05 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Amazing to see such a wipeout of the reds in the House and what looks like a wipeout of the blues in the senate.  I'd rather have seen the Dems win the House by just a few seats and at least hold their number of Senate seats.  It might be 55-45 after this is over.

    The Republicans who had districts that went for Hillary have gotten wiped out.  EVERY ONE thus far GONE.  Buh bye Peter Roskam!
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:12 pm

    Let's see if the Dems can run a good House and start passing some bills that Americans will like.  Pass some bills that have the best interests of the majority citizenry in mind and then message the motherfuck out of it.  I worry that they'll overreach right out of the gate.  They are already talking about subpoenaing Trump's taxes.  Really?  To what ends?  What will they gain from seeing them?
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    sharpy
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by sharpy on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:15 pm

    The big thing for me is the governorship - as it should be for you also Rob, because the Governors are the ones who will re-district their states for the 2020 elections, and if the Democrats don't rig this so that they are assured a win, then fuck them ..
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:18 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Let's see if the Dems can run a good House and start passing some bills that Americans will like.  Pass some bills that have the best interests of the majority citizenry in mind and then message the motherfuck out of it.  I worry that they'll overreach right out of the gate.  They are already talking about subpoenaing Trump's taxes.  Really?  To what ends?  What will they gain from seeing them?

    Couldn't disagree more.  They need to know that they're the Democrats' bitch!  Kick them just to show you can.  That's what Republicans would do.  Bring a goddam gun to a knife fight!
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    sharpy
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by sharpy on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:22 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Let's see if the Dems can run a good House and start passing some bills that Americans will like.  Pass some bills that have the best interests of the majority citizenry in mind and then message the motherfuck out of it.  I worry that they'll overreach right out of the gate.  They are already talking about subpoenaing Trump's taxes.  Really?  To what ends?  What will they gain from seeing them?


    you know what will go the furthest for the democrats - NOT electing Pelosi to be the Speaker - if she is speaker, I'll almost guarantee they lose again in the 2020. she is toxic 
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:28 pm

    sharpy wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Let's see if the Dems can run a good House and start passing some bills that Americans will like.  Pass some bills that have the best interests of the majority citizenry in mind and then message the motherfuck out of it.  I worry that they'll overreach right out of the gate.  They are already talking about subpoenaing Trump's taxes.  Really?  To what ends?  What will they gain from seeing them?


    you know what will go the furthest for the democrats - NOT electing Pelosi to be the Speaker - if she is speaker, I'll almost guarantee they lose again in the 2020. she is toxic 
     
    They'll hand her the gavel initially, but then they'll begin working on who will replace her so that she's long out of the picture by 2020.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:30 pm

    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Let's see if the Dems can run a good House and start passing some bills that Americans will like.  Pass some bills that have the best interests of the majority citizenry in mind and then message the motherfuck out of it.  I worry that they'll overreach right out of the gate.  They are already talking about subpoenaing Trump's taxes.  Really?  To what ends?  What will they gain from seeing them?

    Couldn't disagree more.  They need to know that they're the Democrats' bitch!  Kick them just to show you can.  That's what Republicans would do.  Bring a goddam gun to a knife fight!

    I'm fine with that.  Just don't overreach in ways that the entire nation can see that you're overreaching.  There have got to be better first moves that asking for Trump's taxes.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:32 pm

    Talking like it might be Adam Schiff that's made speaker after an initial period held by Pelosi.  I'm watching Pelosi give a House victory speech.  I have never really understood what people hate about her.  She comes across as a bit goofy, but I figure that's age catching up with her.  I think she's a nice lady saying reasonable things.  I've not heard her say anything that ever rubbed me the wrong way.  If people think she's weak and not cutthroat enough, I can jive with that, but I don't really know what Repubs hate about her so much.
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:57 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Let's see if the Dems can run a good House and start passing some bills that Americans will like.  Pass some bills that have the best interests of the majority citizenry in mind and then message the motherfuck out of it.  I worry that they'll overreach right out of the gate.  They are already talking about subpoenaing Trump's taxes.  Really?  To what ends?  What will they gain from seeing them?

    Couldn't disagree more.  They need to know that they're the Democrats' bitch!  Kick them just to show you can.  That's what Republicans would do.  Bring a goddam gun to a knife fight!

    I'm fine with that.  Just don't overreach in ways that the entire nation can see that you're overreaching.  There have got to be better first moves that asking for Trump's taxes.

    Why?  Cuz 14 Benghazi investigations hurt the Republicans?
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    sharpy
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by sharpy on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:58 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Talking like it might be Adam Schiff that's made speaker after an initial period held by Pelosi.  I'm watching Pelosi give a House victory speech.  I have never really understood what people hate about her.  She comes across as a bit goofy, but I figure that's age catching up with her.  I think she's a nice lady saying reasonable things.  I've not heard her say anything that ever rubbed me the wrong way.  If people think she's weak and not cutthroat enough, I can jive with that, but I don't really know what Repubs hate about her so much.



    Its all perception - Jesus could have been the democratic Speaker and HE would have been the one vilified and torn about by the GOP and now 50% of the country see her as stalin and lenin tied into one - she cannot be the head of the democratic house - they will rip her apart and base the ENTIRE 2020 strategy on how terrible she is ...
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:58 pm

    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Let's see if the Dems can run a good House and start passing some bills that Americans will like.  Pass some bills that have the best interests of the majority citizenry in mind and then message the motherfuck out of it.  I worry that they'll overreach right out of the gate.  They are already talking about subpoenaing Trump's taxes.  Really?  To what ends?  What will they gain from seeing them?

    Couldn't disagree more.  They need to know that they're the Democrats' bitch!  Kick them just to show you can.  That's what Republicans would do.  Bring a goddam gun to a knife fight!

    I'm fine with that.  Just don't overreach in ways that the entire nation can see that you're overreaching.  There have got to be better first moves that asking for Trump's taxes.

    Why?  Cuz 14 Benghazi investigations hurt the Republicans?

    I don't know that they didn't.  I think there's a part of me that just can't stand sinking to that level.
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:59 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Talking like it might be Adam Schiff that's made speaker after an initial period held by Pelosi.  I'm watching Pelosi give a House victory speech.  I have never really understood what people hate about her.  She comes across as a bit goofy, but I figure that's age catching up with her.  I think she's a nice lady saying reasonable things.  I've not heard her say anything that ever rubbed me the wrong way.  If people think she's weak and not cutthroat enough, I can jive with that, but I don't really know what Repubs hate about her so much.

    They hate her because Republicans targeted her.  It's the Mike Madigan, George Soros, Hillary Clinton, etc. of the House.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:00 pm

    sharpy wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Talking like it might be Adam Schiff that's made speaker after an initial period held by Pelosi.  I'm watching Pelosi give a House victory speech.  I have never really understood what people hate about her.  She comes across as a bit goofy, but I figure that's age catching up with her.  I think she's a nice lady saying reasonable things.  I've not heard her say anything that ever rubbed me the wrong way.  If people think she's weak and not cutthroat enough, I can jive with that, but I don't really know what Repubs hate about her so much.



    Its all perception - Jesus could have been the democratic Speaker and HE would have been the one vilified and torn about by the GOP and now 50% of the country see her as stalin and lenin tied into one - she cannot be the head of the democratic house - they will rip her apart and base the ENTIRE 2020 strategy on how terrible she is ...

    That much we agree on.  She has to be moved out of the Speaker spot just because of her perception.  I've just never particularly understood that perception.
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:01 pm

    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Talking like it might be Adam Schiff that's made speaker after an initial period held by Pelosi.  I'm watching Pelosi give a House victory speech.  I have never really understood what people hate about her.  She comes across as a bit goofy, but I figure that's age catching up with her.  I think she's a nice lady saying reasonable things.  I've not heard her say anything that ever rubbed me the wrong way.  If people think she's weak and not cutthroat enough, I can jive with that, but I don't really know what Repubs hate about her so much.

    They hate her because Republicans targeted her.  It's the Mike Madigan, George Soros, Hillary Clinton, etc. of the House.

    Agreed, but I know a lot of reasonable repubs that hate her, too.  These are people that wouldn't reflexively hate someone because of some inexplicable targeting.
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    blondy28
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    Re: bad omen

    Post by blondy28 on Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:24 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Talking like it might be Adam Schiff that's made speaker after an initial period held by Pelosi.  I'm watching Pelosi give a House victory speech.  I have never really understood what people hate about her.  She comes across as a bit goofy, but I figure that's age catching up with her.  I think she's a nice lady saying reasonable things.  I've not heard her say anything that ever rubbed me the wrong way.  If people think she's weak and not cutthroat enough, I can jive with that, but I don't really know what Repubs hate about her so much.

    They hate her because Republicans targeted her.  It's the Mike Madigan, George Soros, Hillary Clinton, etc. of the House.

    Agreed, but I know a lot of reasonable repubs that hate her, too.  These are people that wouldn't reflexively hate someone because of some inexplicable targeting.

    And their reasons?

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