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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Post by SoxIlliniRob Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:49 pm

    I heard a clip of Amy Klobuchar being asked about her thoughts about single payer and free college and she answered by saying that while she finds those ideals to be aspirational, she didn't see them as reasonable or realistic (I'm paraphrasing).  While I love those ideals (being a commie lib), I agree that they aren't currently reasonable or realistic.  However, I'm concerned.  I'm concerned that if you don't see those things as realistic and you're trying to sell yourself as a centrist that you're going to have a hard time exciting people about you or your candidacy.  This isn't me saying she, or anyone else, needs to run out and stand on a mountaintop and shout about single payer healthcare, but some of these candidates need to take a serious stand about something.  Anything.  Whatever it is, they need to take a stand that will excite people.  Trump is a fucking liar and idiot but he has figured this out.  His cult is about 35% of the population and they will support him even if he turns out to be a serial killer.  

    I really like Amy Klobuchar.  I like Harris.  A few others are cool, too.  But just being a centrist will leave people wondering what you really support.  If you are going to run and have success as some kind of reasonable centrist, you had better have some pretty defined views or people will kind of just wonder what exactly lights your fire.  Bernie was a wacky lefty, but he had a passionate following because he had a strong view about something edgy and people got on that train with him.  What strong view do we know Hillary had?  I don't know of any except that she thought Trump was a clown.  I think we're failing to understand that this is why AOC is so popular.  She takes a huge stand that advocates for the little guy and doesn't fucking care if it's unreasonable.  She just figures if the rest of the world can afford single payer, then we can, too.  And whether that's reasonable or not, I know she's on my side and on the side of my relatives who struggle to just keep their health insurance premiums paid every month.  Maybe I'm just nuts...but I'm beginning to believe that the person that can beat Trump is going to be someone with daring ideals that dare to advocate for the masses, and not someone trying not to be too provocative.  Pretty sure Biden can figure out how to do this.  Harris might.  Warren isn't afraid but she's a whacko who won't win.  Maybe Beto?  

    Sorry to belabor it, but this has been bothering me lately.  Not sure I see how some centrist without defined views is going to excite turnout or excite young voters.
    cream919
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    Post by cream919 Tue Feb 19, 2019 10:58 pm

    Sherrod Brown has my support if he throws his hat in the ring. A pragmatic progressive.
    SoxIlliniRob
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    Post by SoxIlliniRob Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:14 am

    I love him, Cream, but does he hold one specific position that will prompt apathetic boobs to get off their asses and run to the polls? I fear that he doesn't.
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    jaywit
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    Post by jaywit Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:56 am

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:I love him, Cream, but does he hold one specific position that will prompt apathetic boobs to get off their asses and run to the polls?  I fear that he doesn't.


    Will being "anybody but Trump" be a strong enough position to put any of these candidates in the White House?  Hillary had 2 million more votes than Trump.  Imagine someone running on the dems side that people actually like.  Weren't there record numbers of voters this past mid-term?



    At this time, I have only a superficial knowledge of the candidates stances but there seems to be considerable overlap.  The differences between many are likely to be subtle and some will likely become favored over others based upon that enigmatic quality, charisma.
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    Post by SoxIlliniRob Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:17 am

    jaywit wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:I love him, Cream, but does he hold one specific position that will prompt apathetic boobs to get off their asses and run to the polls?  I fear that he doesn't.


    Will being "anybody but Trump" be a strong enough position to put any of these candidates in the White House?  Hillary had 2 million more votes than Trump.  Imagine someone running on the dems side that people actually like.  Weren't there record numbers of voters this past mid-term?



    At this time, I have only a superficial knowledge of the candidates stances but there seems to be considerable overlap.  The differences between many are likely to be subtle and some will likely become favored over others based upon that enigmatic quality, charisma.

    I think Hillary won by closer to 3 million, Jay, but POINT TAKEN.  I don't think you can go into this election just figuring we need a candidate more likable than Hillary because it's a safe bet that some people have moved over to Trump in the interim.  That may not be the case, but you need to assume that as a safety precaution.  

    Yes, the midterm was record midterm turnout, but you probably also have to assume that some of that fervor will die down with time.  Let's face it, people are getting Trump Outrage Fatigue.  We've seen so much crazy shit that it's almost impossible to get people worked up anymore.  I'm worried that by election day people will just shrug at his shenanigans.  I just saw McCabe on the news saying that there was more than enough evidence in FBI hands to make an obstruction of justice claim against Trump.  Nobody cares.  Imagine if this were against Hillary or Obama or Bill Clinton?  People shrug.  

    Maybe you're right.  I'm praying you are.  But Dems had better assume you're wrong and work their asses off to make sure they have a candidate that's exciting the masses and exciting the voter base.  I personally really like Klobuchar, and a few others, but they will need to take some firm stands that get noticed if they want people to work hard for them, campaign for them, and get off their asses to vote for them.
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    Post by SoxIlliniRob Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:37 am

    To further my point, Jay, Trump won NC by 3% in 2016.  I saw some North Carolina polling yesterday that hypothetically pitted Trump against a few different Dems....Biden, Harris, Sanders and Booker.  Trump beat them all in polling.  Biden was 4% behind him and had the best result in this particular set of data.  That's worse than Hillary performed.  Biden loses ground to how Hillary did?  Yikes.  These are the things that keep me up at night.
    blondy28
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    Post by blondy28 Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:42 am

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:I heard a clip of Amy Klobuchar being asked about her thoughts about single payer and free college and she answered by saying that while she finds those ideals to be aspirational, she didn't see them as reasonable or realistic (I'm paraphrasing).  While I love those ideals (being a commie lib), I agree that they aren't currently reasonable or realistic.  However, I'm concerned.  I'm concerned that if you don't see those things as realistic and you're trying to sell yourself as a centrist that you're going to have a hard time exciting people about you or your candidacy.  This isn't me saying she, or anyone else, needs to run out and stand on a mountaintop and shout about single payer healthcare, but some of these candidates need to take a serious stand about something.  Anything.  Whatever it is, they need to take a stand that will excite people.  Trump is a fucking liar and idiot but he has figured this out.  His cult is about 35% of the population and they will support him even if he turns out to be a serial killer.  

    I really like Amy Klobuchar.  I like Harris.  A few others are cool, too.  But just being a centrist will leave people wondering what you really support.  If you are going to run and have success as some kind of reasonable centrist, you had better have some pretty defined views or people will kind of just wonder what exactly lights your fire.  Bernie was a wacky lefty, but he had a passionate following because he had a strong view about something edgy and people got on that train with him.  What strong view do we know Hillary had?  I don't know of any except that she thought Trump was a clown.  I think we're failing to understand that this is why AOC is so popular.  She takes a huge stand that advocates for the little guy and doesn't fucking care if it's unreasonable.  She just figures if the rest of the world can afford single payer, then we can, too.  And whether that's reasonable or not, I know she's on my side and on the side of my relatives who struggle to just keep their health insurance premiums paid every month.  Maybe I'm just nuts...but I'm beginning to believe that the person that can beat Trump is going to be someone with daring ideals that dare to advocate for the masses, and not someone trying not to be too provocative.  Pretty sure Biden can figure out how to do this.  Harris might.  Warren isn't afraid but she's a whacko who won't win.  Maybe Beto?  

    Sorry to belabor it, but this has been bothering me lately.  Not sure I see how some centrist without defined views is going to excite turnout or excite young voters.

    I didn't hear her speech, but I totally agree with you.  When Obama ran, he said he was a universal healthcare proponent but that it was unrealistic to go from our system to universal healthcare, and I totally agreed with him and was fine with the statement.  What I was NOT ok with was him not fighting for a public option.  He gave it up with no debate.  I think negotiations probably need to start with your utopia, knowing that you probably won't get it.  While Obama's statement made sense, we're 8 years into Obamacare, so it's a completely different environment.  Klobuchar needs to start negotiations with universal healthcare, then **maybe** we end up with a public option, which I suppose is the same as medicare for all.
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    Post by blondy28 Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:45 am

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:To further my point, Jay, Trump won NC by 3% in 2016.  I saw some North Carolina polling yesterday that hypothetically pitted Trump against a few different Dems....Biden, Harris, Sanders and Booker.  Trump beat them all in polling.  Biden was 4% behind him and had the best result in this particular set of data.  That's worse than Hillary performed.  Biden loses ground to how Hillary did?  Yikes.  These are the things that keep me up at night.

    I don't think NC is realistic.  Neither is Indiana.  Any thoughts that either of them were purple were really because of Obama, not ideology.  Better off going after Ohio, who lost jobs, and getting Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan back...and maybe Iowa.  Florida is a shit show.
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    Post by SoxIlliniRob Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:01 pm

    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:To further my point, Jay, Trump won NC by 3% in 2016.  I saw some North Carolina polling yesterday that hypothetically pitted Trump against a few different Dems....Biden, Harris, Sanders and Booker.  Trump beat them all in polling.  Biden was 4% behind him and had the best result in this particular set of data.  That's worse than Hillary performed.  Biden loses ground to how Hillary did?  Yikes.  These are the things that keep me up at night.

    I don't think NC is realistic.  Neither is Indiana.  Any thoughts that either of them were purple were really because of Obama, not ideology.  Better off going after Ohio, who lost jobs, and getting Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan back...and maybe Iowa.  Florida is a shit show.

    Getting back Wisc, Penn and MI wins the presidency unless you lose some other state.  FL and NC should at least be in their sights.  So should GA and IA and AZ.  Winning one or two of those other states need to be very high priorities.
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    Post by blondy28 Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:06 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:To further my point, Jay, Trump won NC by 3% in 2016.  I saw some North Carolina polling yesterday that hypothetically pitted Trump against a few different Dems....Biden, Harris, Sanders and Booker.  Trump beat them all in polling.  Biden was 4% behind him and had the best result in this particular set of data.  That's worse than Hillary performed.  Biden loses ground to how Hillary did?  Yikes.  These are the things that keep me up at night.

    I don't think NC is realistic.  Neither is Indiana.  Any thoughts that either of them were purple were really because of Obama, not ideology.  Better off going after Ohio, who lost jobs, and getting Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan back...and maybe Iowa.  Florida is a shit show.

    Getting back Wisc, Penn and MI wins the presidency unless you lose some other state.  FL and NC should at least be in their sights.  So should GA and IA and AZ.  Winning one or two of those other states need to be very high priorities.

    Think we're more likely to win Arizona than NC, although I'd like to think that the state-level power grabs in Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina would result in greater voter turnout in those states because they see the GOP for what it is, but I'm not confident.
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    Post by cream919 Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:48 pm

    Dems should be ok if they can take back traditionally blue midwestern states that Trump just barely won. A solid democratic candidate can do that. One of the things I like about Brown is I think he has blue collar appeal. Fuck Florida...Dems always make the mistake of wasting far too much time and money on a state they seldom win. Forget all the glam of places like Miami and such...Florida is a deep south red state chock full of knuckle-draggers along the lines of Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama.
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    Post by SoxIlliniRob Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:02 pm

    Saw similar polling for Arizona.  Trump destroyed Harris, or Sanders, or Warren in a hypothetical head to head match up.  He tied with Biden.  I'd say it's concerning that he's destroying everyone but the most likely guy that can match up with him, and that guy is only tying Trump.  Lots of time between now and then but holy shit...I mean the guy is an obvious criminal and steaming pile of crap.  It's beyond my comprehension.
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    Post by blondy28 Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:18 am

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Saw similar polling for Arizona.  Trump destroyed Harris, or Sanders, or Warren in a hypothetical head to head match up.  He tied with Biden.  I'd say it's concerning that he's destroying everyone but the most likely guy that can match up with him, and that guy is only tying Trump.  Lots of time between now and then but holy shit...I mean the guy is an obvious criminal and steaming pile of crap.  It's beyond my comprehension.

    Isn't that fairly customary when there are a slew of candidates?  Seems like Hillary had double digit leads over every Republican candidate in polls. I'd say a tie in Arizona in early polling is good news for any dem candidate.
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    Post by SoxIlliniRob Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:06 am

    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Saw similar polling for Arizona.  Trump destroyed Harris, or Sanders, or Warren in a hypothetical head to head match up.  He tied with Biden.  I'd say it's concerning that he's destroying everyone but the most likely guy that can match up with him, and that guy is only tying Trump.  Lots of time between now and then but holy shit...I mean the guy is an obvious criminal and steaming pile of crap.  It's beyond my comprehension.

    Isn't that fairly customary when there are a slew of candidates?  Seems like Hillary had double digit leads over every Republican candidate in polls. I'd say a tie in Arizona in early polling is good news for any dem candidate.

    I just figured that considering his awful approval ratings and clear criminality and dishonesty, I'd expect nearly anyone to be ahead of Trump in polling right now, aside from maybe Hillary.
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    Post by blondy28 Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:04 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Saw similar polling for Arizona.  Trump destroyed Harris, or Sanders, or Warren in a hypothetical head to head match up.  He tied with Biden.  I'd say it's concerning that he's destroying everyone but the most likely guy that can match up with him, and that guy is only tying Trump.  Lots of time between now and then but holy shit...I mean the guy is an obvious criminal and steaming pile of crap.  It's beyond my comprehension.

    Isn't that fairly customary when there are a slew of candidates?  Seems like Hillary had double digit leads over every Republican candidate in polls. I'd say a tie in Arizona in early polling is good news for any dem candidate.

    I just figured that considering his awful approval ratings and clear criminality and dishonesty, I'd expect nearly anyone to be ahead of Trump in polling right now, aside from maybe Hillary.

    Well, it is Arizona.  Those are big "build a wall" people, I would think.

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