District 14

Is that your district, Rob?  Daily Herald endorsed Lauren Underwood over Randy Hultgren, who's connected at the hip to my awful rep Peter Roskam.  The Herald got the Roskam endorsement wrong (says he's an independent voice who will stand up to Trump...as evidenced by voting with him 94% of the time), but nice to see they got this one right.  Underwood's impressive.

yeah, I'm in the Underwood vs. Hultgren district.  Polling just came out showing him up 4%.  That can be overcome, but it's going to take a blitz of extra dem voters to show up out of anger.  I have heard polling experts surmise that when you see a poll showing the incumbent up 47 to 43% this close to the election, it is generally read as an ominous sign for the incumbent, especially in years like this where there's a reverse wave expected.  Supposedly, incumbents not consistently polling around 50% or better are supposed to be worried.  

If I were basing expectations on yard signs, there are a lot of Underwood signs out by me.  More than the Hultgren number of signs.

SoxIlliniRob wrote:yeah, I'm in the Underwood vs. Hultgren district.  Polling just came out showing him up 4%.  That can be overcome, but it's going to take a blitz of extra dem voters to show up out of anger.  I have heard polling experts surmise that when you see a poll showing the incumbent up 47 to 43% this close to the election, it is generally read as an ominous sign for the incumbent, especially in years like this where there's a reverse wave expected.  Supposedly, incumbents not consistently polling around 50% or better are supposed to be worried.  

If I were basing expectations on yard signs, there are a lot of Underwood signs out by me.  More than the Hultgren number of signs.

My district is so convoluted.  It's as far south as Naperville/Aurora and north into Lake Zurich.  I see very few Roskam signs around here, although I don't see a ton of Casten signs, but certainly more than Roskam.  What's really telling to me is that there are A LOT of Tom Morrison signs (my state rep), and typically you would see Roskam signs in the same yards, but there are none.  There's even one yard that has a Tom Rooney sign (state senator) and a Casten sign.  A democratic poll just had Casten up 5. But as encouraging as things are up this way, when you get down to the Wheaton area, that's a big Roskam area.  The canvassing in my Flip the 6th FB group is very encouraging, though.  Roskam is awful.

blondy28 wrote:

SoxIlliniRob wrote:yeah, I'm in the Underwood vs. Hultgren district.  Polling just came out showing him up 4%.  That can be overcome, but it's going to take a blitz of extra dem voters to show up out of anger.  I have heard polling experts surmise that when you see a poll showing the incumbent up 47 to 43% this close to the election, it is generally read as an ominous sign for the incumbent, especially in years like this where there's a reverse wave expected.  Supposedly, incumbents not consistently polling around 50% or better are supposed to be worried.  

If I were basing expectations on yard signs, there are a lot of Underwood signs out by me.  More than the Hultgren number of signs.

My district is so convoluted.  It's as far south as Naperville/Aurora and north into Lake Zurich.  I see very few Roskam signs around here, although I don't see a ton of Casten signs, but certainly more than Roskam.  What's really telling to me is that there are A LOT of Tom Morrison signs (my state rep), and typically you would see Roskam signs in the same yards, but there are none.  There's even one yard that has a Tom Rooney sign (state senator) and a Casten sign.  A democratic poll just had Casten up 5. But as encouraging as things are up this way, when you get down to the Wheaton area, that's a big Roskam area.  The canvassing in my Flip the 6th FB group is very encouraging, though.  Roskam is awful.

Roskam is just another blank check supporter of Trumpism.  So is the entire Senate, save for Murkowski.

SoxIlliniRob wrote:yeah, I'm in the Underwood vs. Hultgren district.  Polling just came out showing him up 4%.  That can be overcome, but it's going to take a blitz of extra dem voters to show up out of anger.  I have heard polling experts surmise that when you see a poll showing the incumbent up 47 to 43% this close to the election, it is generally read as an ominous sign for the incumbent, especially in years like this where there's a reverse wave expected.  Supposedly, incumbents not consistently polling around 50% or better are supposed to be worried.  

If I were basing expectations on yard signs, there are a lot of Underwood signs out by me.  More than the Hultgren number of signs.

Interesting summary on our districts came out yesterday.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-post-kavanaugh-polls-reveal-even-more-polarized?fbclid=IwAR3ki18Q0kIvkLv0TIamReDjA-o2ngGe960yWDkNalesFQA33D-TkfGdWzI