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    My long-shot

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    blondy28
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    My long-shot

    Post by blondy28 on Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:36 pm

    Honestly, I think long-shot might be overstating it.  Beto had knocked 1 point off Cruz's lead each week over the past 4 weeks.  He was 8, 7, 6, and now 5.  If the trend continues and it drops to 4, that's within the margin of error.  I love this guy.  He's run a virtually flawless campaign, and I'm pretty sure he doesn't sleep, because all I see is him campaigning.  GO BETO GO!
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    sharpy
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by sharpy on Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:47 pm

    In the political arena nothing would make me happier than to have Ted Cruz lose his ass ...unfortunately, I think there are too many of his ilk in Texas for him to do so 

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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by jaywit on Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:10 pm

    sharpy wrote:In the political arena nothing would make me happier than to have Ted Cruz lose his ass ...unfortunately, I think there are too many of his ilk in Texas for him to do so 
    His loss to Cruz may be America's gain.  I've seen him say explicitly that if he won the senate seat, he would not consider a run for the presidency.  With all the campaigning he is doing that's getting positive national attention and a loss to Cruz, he may be enticed to become the democratic presidential nominee in 2020.  He presents himself very well, speaks clear and succinctly, answers tough questions without evasiveness and seems to have a lot of charisma.  From what I see, he could overcome the negative spins from Trump without lowering himself into the gutter.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:39 pm

    jaywit wrote:
    sharpy wrote:In the political arena nothing would make me happier than to have Ted Cruz lose his ass ...unfortunately, I think there are too many of his ilk in Texas for him to do so 
    His loss to Cruz may be America's gain.  I've seen him say explicitly that if he won the senate seat, he would not consider a run for the presidency.  With all the campaigning he is doing that's getting positive national attention and a loss to Cruz, he may be enticed to become the democratic presidential nominee in 2020.  He presents himself very well, speaks clear and succinctly, answers tough questions without evasiveness and seems to have a lot of charisma.  From what I see, he could overcome the negative spins from Trump without lowering himself into the gutter.

    I like the way you think, Jay.  You think he could break through being so young and inexperienced?  I agree he seems to understand how to run and campaign and connect with people.  Seems like the entire package.  Imagine if he were to run vs. someone like Nikki Haley, who is also a reasonable person.  Maybe I'm dreaming, but I can almost envision it being a nice campaign between a couple of decent people.  Obviously the only way this could happen would be if Trump opted not to run and Haley or Ben Sasse were to win the nomination.  I just wonder if the GOP voter base has it in them to nominate someone seemingly normal like one of these two Repubs, or if they'd nominate some crackpot like Giulliani or Ted Cruz or Pence.  I'm done trying to predict what the GOP voters want or will do.  I believe that if Beto ran for pres, he'd not be taken seriously at first due to age and experience, but if given enough attention might break through a bit like Obama did in around 2007.  My dark horse Dem nominee prediction is still Amy Klobuschar.

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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by jaywit on Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:00 am

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    jaywit wrote:
    sharpy wrote:In the political arena nothing would make me happier than to have Ted Cruz lose his ass ...unfortunately, I think there are too many of his ilk in Texas for him to do so 
    His loss to Cruz may be America's gain.  I've seen him say explicitly that if he won the senate seat, he would not consider a run for the presidency.  With all the campaigning he is doing that's getting positive national attention and a loss to Cruz, he may be enticed to become the democratic presidential nominee in 2020.  He presents himself very well, speaks clear and succinctly, answers tough questions without evasiveness and seems to have a lot of charisma.  From what I see, he could overcome the negative spins from Trump without lowering himself into the gutter.

    I like the way you think, Jay.  You think he could break through being so young and inexperienced?  I agree he seems to understand how to run and campaign and connect with people.  Seems like the entire package.  Imagine if he were to run vs. someone like Nikki Haley, who is also a reasonable person.  Maybe I'm dreaming, but I can almost envision it being a nice campaign between a couple of decent people.  Obviously the only way this could happen would be if Trump opted not to run and Haley or Ben Sasse were to win the nomination.  I just wonder if the GOP voter base has it in them to nominate someone seemingly normal like one of these two Repubs, or if they'd nominate some crackpot like Giulliani or Ted Cruz or Pence.  I'm done trying to predict what the GOP voters want or will do.  I believe that if Beto ran for pres, he'd not be taken seriously at first due to age and experience, but if given enough attention might break through a bit like Obama did in around 2007.  My dark horse Dem nominee prediction is still Amy Klobuschar.
    I don't know a lot about Amy Klobuschar but I thought she came off looking very good during the Kavanaugh hearing.  She took the high road and didn't look weak by doing so.  Personally, I was waiting for a "lower road" response such as "Judge Kavanaugh" followed by a deliberate pregnant pause.  "My past actions are not what is on trial here.  Yours is.  Please answer the simple yes/no question."  Instead, her way probably scored more points and led to a direct apology from Kavanaugh.  Not sure how she would play out on the national stage.  She could be called soft.



    Yes, Rob, I think you are dreaming if you ever see a future with a nice presidential campaign.  Haley could personally run a fairly clean campaign but there are tons of ugly, dirty dollars out of her control.  These are available on both sides of the aisle and will forever darken all future campaigns.


    In 2020, will Beto be that much younger than Obama was when he ran?  I'm too lazy to look it up but I'd guess he'd be within a year or 2 of that of Obama in 2008.  I think he could break through on a national level.  He's in a very, very Red state and he's near to toppling one of the reddest dickheads in the country.  I think he could galvanize the younger vote, get a good portion of the non-voters off their butts.  I have to admit after watching him talk a few times I've been quite impressed.  At one point while I was watching, my wife came in and sat down to watch, said nothing for awhile, then asked, as if she also was impressed, "who is that talking?" and I responded, "A future president of the United States."  
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:05 am

    Go Jay! Giving me goosebumps.

    A Haley vs Beto election would get dirty on the dark money PAC side, but I can still hold hope that they would themselves act like adults. My other concern is Beto running without having gotten higher than the House. He is in the wrong damn state. Agree with you 100% on his talents.

    I have no idea if Klobushar will run. I just view her as a 180 degree opposite of Trump, and that might play well with 55% of the country.
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    sharpy
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by sharpy on Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:35 pm

    Obviously the only way this could happen would be if Trump opted not to run and Haley or Ben Sasse were to win the nomination.


    If he is not dead, he is going to run
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    cream919
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by cream919 on Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:59 pm

    If he is not dead, he is going to run


    ***********************************************************

    Correction: If he's not dead he's going to steal another term. 
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:45 am

    Cruz down to +3 in today polling from Emerson.  Probably what you have to hope is that there's another 3-5% not accounted for because they are young voters without a home hard line phone, and who have been excluded from polling data collection.  Probably a good sign that young voting is up about 500+%, because I doubt that group is voting for the ghoulish Cruz.
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    blondy28
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by blondy28 on Thu Nov 01, 2018 1:21 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Cruz down to +3 in today polling from Emerson.  Probably what you have to hope is that there's another 3-5% not accounted for because they are young voters without a home hard line phone, and who have been excluded from polling data collection.  Probably a good sign that young voting is up about 500+%, because I doubt that group is voting for the ghoulish Cruz.

    Article said 66% of the young vote in early voting voted blue.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Thu Nov 01, 2018 1:34 pm

    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Cruz down to +3 in today polling from Emerson.  Probably what you have to hope is that there's another 3-5% not accounted for because they are young voters without a home hard line phone, and who have been excluded from polling data collection.  Probably a good sign that young voting is up about 500+%, because I doubt that group is voting for the ghoulish Cruz.

    Article said 66% of the young vote in early voting voted blue.

    I'm surprised it's even that low.  You'd think it would be in the 70's.
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    blondy28
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by blondy28 on Thu Nov 01, 2018 2:20 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Cruz down to +3 in today polling from Emerson.  Probably what you have to hope is that there's another 3-5% not accounted for because they are young voters without a home hard line phone, and who have been excluded from polling data collection.  Probably a good sign that young voting is up about 500+%, because I doubt that group is voting for the ghoulish Cruz.

    Article said 66% of the young vote in early voting voted blue.

    I'm surprised it's even that low.  You'd think it would be in the 70's.

    Yeah, but it's Georgia and Texas.  Would think the nationwide numbers for that demographic would be higher.
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    blondy28
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by blondy28 on Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:13 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:Cruz down to +3 in today polling from Emerson.  Probably what you have to hope is that there's another 3-5% not accounted for because they are young voters without a home hard line phone, and who have been excluded from polling data collection.  Probably a good sign that young voting is up about 500+%, because I doubt that group is voting for the ghoulish Cruz.

    Another poll came out today showing Beto trailing by 10 points, which is clearly an outlier.  He's trailed the entire time, but I've never seen a poll showing him with 42% of the vote like that one did.  One thing I really like about 538 is that they grade the pollsters so you know which ones are the most reliable.

    Beto did a townhall the other night on Hardball.  I love the guy.  Obviously I agree with his politics, but he's about as smooth a speaker as I've ever seen.  He's clear, concise, and I don't think I've ever heard him say "um" while he's answering questions.  And he's all over Texas!  I mean, sure, I don't follow Cruz on twitter, but still, he's not going from town to town, all over the damned state, and just talking to people.  I get that he's an incumbent so that kind of thing may not be as necessary, but if I'm advising the very unlikable Cruz, who has a legitimate threat breathing down his neck, I'd get my ass out there and shake a few hands.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:00 pm

    He is super smooth. I will give him that. I hope he has depth and staying power. My wife calls him Johnboy.
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    blondy28
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by blondy28 on Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:14 pm

    Beto kept it tight down until the end.  I love the guy.  And he just dropped an F-bomb on TV.  President Beto.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:16 pm

    In losing he helped propel a few Dems to win seats away from Repubs in Texas.

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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by jaywit on Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:47 am

    Well, it was a long shot to win Texas.  Too bad.  Now I question the presidential likelihood.  Can he win when he won't carry his own state?


    Overall I'm disappointed.  I wanted/hoped for a broader American repudiation of Trump.  This effort to do so seemed monumental and yet fell short.  Pessimistic about 2020.
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:27 am

    jaywit wrote:Well, it was a long shot to win Texas.  Too bad.  Now I question the presidential likelihood.  Can he win when he won't carry his own state?


    Overall I'm disappointed.  I wanted/hoped for a broader American repudiation of Trump.  This effort to do so seemed monumental and yet fell short.  Pessimistic about 2020.

    I'd say he's a definite possibility for 2020.  He came within 3% in Texas.  That's pretty big.  Not predicting he will win, but I suspect if you put him up against Trump he's carrying some states that Hillary didn't.  Maybe a lot of them.

    Don't let this get you too down.  We have a strong as hell economy.  There's not denying that the economy is in good shape.  never mind who is responsible for it.  People tend to vote based on economic reasons.  The fact that the Dems took the House in this economy is a pretty good sign.  We're due for a recession at some point soon'ish.  Not because of Trump but because recessions just happen.  If one happens, the economic argument goes away.  I don't mean that to suggest we root for a recession, but it's becoming overdue...or at least a slow down is due.  

    I saw some pundit writing about Klobuchar winning such a huge majority in Minny, including winning areas that Trump won by a LOT in 2016.  That person was making the point that just based on that bit of info, she's a strong candidate to run and have a chance vs. Trump.  She doesn't play in the mud.  She's serious as a heart attack, but pleasant.  Sanders was my dark horse back in 2015 and he almost won the nomination.  I think Klobuchar is my dark horse for the next election.  Not even sure if she'll run.  

    I think we need to try enjoying this result for now and making the best of it.  Lots will happen between now and 2020.
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    blondy28
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by blondy28 on Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:36 am

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    jaywit wrote:Well, it was a long shot to win Texas.  Too bad.  Now I question the presidential likelihood.  Can he win when he won't carry his own state?


    Overall I'm disappointed.  I wanted/hoped for a broader American repudiation of Trump.  This effort to do so seemed monumental and yet fell short.  Pessimistic about 2020.

    I'd say he's a definite possibility for 2020.  He came within 3% in Texas.  That's pretty big.  Not predicting he will win, but I suspect if you put him up against Trump he's carrying some states that Hillary didn't.  Maybe a lot of them.

    Don't let this get you too down.  We have a strong as hell economy.  There's not denying that the economy is in good shape.  never mind who is responsible for it.  People tend to vote based on economic reasons.  The fact that the Dems took the House in this economy is a pretty good sign.  We're due for a recession at some point soon'ish.  Not because of Trump but because recessions just happen.  If one happens, the economic argument goes away.  I don't mean that to suggest we root for a recession, but it's becoming overdue...or at least a slow down is due.  

    I saw some pundit writing about Klobuchar winning such a huge majority in Minny, including winning areas that Trump won by a LOT in 2016.  That person was making the point that just based on that bit of info, she's a strong candidate to run and have a chance vs. Trump.  She doesn't play in the mud.  She's serious as a heart attack, but pleasant.  Sanders was my dark horse back in 2015 and he almost won the nomination.  I think Klobuchar is my dark horse for the next election.  Not even sure if she'll run.  

    I think we need to try enjoying this result for now and making the best of it.  Lots will happen between now and 2020.

    What's that mean?  My economic reality is that we didn't get pay increases, but we got a 42% tax increase that has fucked us up so badly that I have had to forego healthcare.  There's nothing good about that.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:03 am

    The economy is doing fine, Pam.  It's never fully working for 100% of the American public, and if it's sucking badly for you, I'm sorry for that.  I can empathize.  My point is only that the economy is CURRENTLY in decent shape in general terms.  Not sure how long it'll last, but it's almost absurd for the president to have any kind of wave against him during such a strong and steady time.
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    blondy28
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by blondy28 on Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:11 am

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:The economy is doing fine, Pam.  It's never fully working for 100% of the American public, and if it's sucking badly for you, I'm sorry for that.  I can empathize.  My point is only that the economy is CURRENTLY in decent shape in general terms.  Not sure how long it'll last, but it's almost absurd for the president to have any kind of wave against him during such a strong and steady time.

    That's kind of my point.  The economy was doing great under Obama, but all the shmoes who voted for Trump talked about getting the economy back on track.  "Jobs, jobs, jobs" as they always said...including Roseanne.  Because the 4.8% unemployment rate was really 40%.  At least my perspective is real, as are the many in District 6, who worked very hard to unseat Roskam (interestingly, he lost by 5.6%, and no poll had that accurate) because his policies crushed so many of us.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:24 am

    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:The economy is doing fine, Pam.  It's never fully working for 100% of the American public, and if it's sucking badly for you, I'm sorry for that.  I can empathize.  My point is only that the economy is CURRENTLY in decent shape in general terms.  Not sure how long it'll last, but it's almost absurd for the president to have any kind of wave against him during such a strong and steady time.

    That's kind of my point.  The economy was doing great under Obama, but all the shmoes who voted for Trump talked about getting the economy back on track.  "Jobs, jobs, jobs" as they always said...including Roseanne.  Because the 4.8% unemployment rate was really 40%.  At least my perspective is real, as are the many in District 6, who worked very hard to unseat Roskam (interestingly, he lost by 5.6%, and no poll had that accurate) because his policies crushed so many of us.

    I suspect many people in our districts don't really even grasp how the new tax law will affect them.  They'll probably figure it out at tax time.  I'm personally not even sure.  

    Don't you know that Obama's 4.8% was really 40%, but Trump's 3.8% is actually 3.8%?  Trump lowered it 36.2%.
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    blondy28
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by blondy28 on Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:28 am

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:The economy is doing fine, Pam.  It's never fully working for 100% of the American public, and if it's sucking badly for you, I'm sorry for that.  I can empathize.  My point is only that the economy is CURRENTLY in decent shape in general terms.  Not sure how long it'll last, but it's almost absurd for the president to have any kind of wave against him during such a strong and steady time.

    That's kind of my point.  The economy was doing great under Obama, but all the shmoes who voted for Trump talked about getting the economy back on track.  "Jobs, jobs, jobs" as they always said...including Roseanne.  Because the 4.8% unemployment rate was really 40%.  At least my perspective is real, as are the many in District 6, who worked very hard to unseat Roskam (interestingly, he lost by 5.6%, and no poll had that accurate) because his policies crushed so many of us.

    I suspect many people in our districts don't really even grasp how the new tax law will affect them.  They'll probably figure it out at tax time.  I'm personally not even sure.  

    Don't you know that Obama's 4.8% was really 40%, but Trump's 3.8% is actually 3.8%?  Trump lowered it 36.2%.

    Very true.  Those in my FB "Flip the 6" and "Action 6" groups understand that the tax scam is hurting us.  I was thrilled to hear Casten mention our groups' leaders in his speech.
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by alohafri on Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:47 am

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:The economy is doing fine, Pam.  It's never fully working for 100% of the American public, and if it's sucking badly for you, I'm sorry for that.  I can empathize.  My point is only that the economy is CURRENTLY in decent shape in general terms.  Not sure how long it'll last, but it's almost absurd for the president to have any kind of wave against him during such a strong and steady time.

    That's kind of my point.  The economy was doing great under Obama, but all the shmoes who voted for Trump talked about getting the economy back on track.  "Jobs, jobs, jobs" as they always said...including Roseanne.  Because the 4.8% unemployment rate was really 40%.  At least my perspective is real, as are the many in District 6, who worked very hard to unseat Roskam (interestingly, he lost by 5.6%, and no poll had that accurate) because his policies crushed so many of us.

    I suspect many people in our districts don't really even grasp how the new tax law will affect them.  They'll probably figure it out at tax time.  I'm personally not even sure.  

    Don't you know that Obama's 4.8% was really 40%, but Trump's 3.8% is actually 3.8%?  Trump lowered it 36.2%.

    I added nearly $100 per paycheck to my withholdings due to a recommendation by my tax accountant. Otherwise we would have owed well north of $1000 at tax time. Both of us claim zero. Peg also added withholdings.
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    blondy28
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    Re: My long-shot

    Post by blondy28 on Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:54 am

    alohafri wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    blondy28 wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:The economy is doing fine, Pam.  It's never fully working for 100% of the American public, and if it's sucking badly for you, I'm sorry for that.  I can empathize.  My point is only that the economy is CURRENTLY in decent shape in general terms.  Not sure how long it'll last, but it's almost absurd for the president to have any kind of wave against him during such a strong and steady time.

    That's kind of my point.  The economy was doing great under Obama, but all the shmoes who voted for Trump talked about getting the economy back on track.  "Jobs, jobs, jobs" as they always said...including Roseanne.  Because the 4.8% unemployment rate was really 40%.  At least my perspective is real, as are the many in District 6, who worked very hard to unseat Roskam (interestingly, he lost by 5.6%, and no poll had that accurate) because his policies crushed so many of us.

    I suspect many people in our districts don't really even grasp how the new tax law will affect them.  They'll probably figure it out at tax time.  I'm personally not even sure.  

    Don't you know that Obama's 4.8% was really 40%, but Trump's 3.8% is actually 3.8%?  Trump lowered it 36.2%.

    I added nearly $100 per paycheck to my withholdings due to a recommendation by my tax accountant. Otherwise we would have owed well north of $1000 at tax time. Both of us claim zero. Peg also added withholdings.

    We've changed our withholding 4 times since law was passed.  Originally I claimed 0 and my husband 2.  We changed him to zero and withheld an additional $25 from my check.  Then when the the withholding rates kicked in (February??) we changed again and increase my withholding to $50/check, and withheld an additional $50 from his check.  We currently both claim 0 and I withhold $75/check and he withholds $125/check.  I get paid twice a month and he gets paid weekly.

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