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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Popular vote

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Mon May 07, 2018 6:45 am

    Another state (Connecticut) joined the pact to award its electoral votes to the candidate receiving the highest amount of national popular votes. Now about 64% of the way there. If there is a blue wave that turns any new states a little blue, maybe another state or two will join.

    The laws will only go into effect when enough states to award 270 electoral votes have joined.
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    sharpy
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    Re: Popular vote

    Post by sharpy on Tue May 08, 2018 9:09 am

    Im betting Ct has a democratic legislature and governor. The problem with these kind of laws is that they change when the ruling party changes. 
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    alohafri
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    Re: Popular vote

    Post by alohafri on Tue May 08, 2018 9:57 am

    sharpy wrote:Im betting Ct has a democratic legislature and governor. The problem with these kind of laws is that they change when the ruling party changes. 

    Yep on both accounts.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: Popular vote

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue May 08, 2018 10:43 am

    sharpy wrote:Im betting Ct has a democratic legislature and governor. The problem with these kind of laws is that they change when the ruling party changes. 

    Yes, that's true, but to change it would likely require a full change of house, senate and governor in each state.  If just one of those three parts remains blue, then the law likely remains in place in any certain state.  I also suspect that if they were to get close...let's say that they are at 240 electoral votes worth of coalescing, I could imagine some of those states saying "close enough" and passing an amendment to the law saying they are doing it now, rather than waiting for another state or two, figuring that giving 240 electoral votes to the popular vote winner would almost ensure that person as the victor.  

    If they ever manage to get to a place where now the popular vote decides the winner, I expect it to be quite popular and remain in place, since votes ought to count equally anyway, and I expect that Americans would generally agree with that except in Utah or Wyoming, where votes have three times as much power.


    Last edited by SoxIlliniRob on Tue May 08, 2018 10:50 am; edited 1 time in total
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: Popular vote

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue May 08, 2018 10:44 am

    alohafri wrote:
    sharpy wrote:Im betting Ct has a democratic legislature and governor. The problem with these kind of laws is that they change when the ruling party changes. 

    Yep on both accounts.

    They have been working on this for quite some time and to my knowledge, no state that has passed this law has gone back and undone it.
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    alohafri
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    Re: Popular vote

    Post by alohafri on Tue May 08, 2018 11:06 am

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    alohafri wrote:
    sharpy wrote:Im betting Ct has a democratic legislature and governor. The problem with these kind of laws is that they change when the ruling party changes. 

    Yep on both accounts.

    They have been working on this for quite some time and to my knowledge, no state that has passed this law has gone back and undone it.

    Have those states changed party in charge?
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: Popular vote

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue May 08, 2018 1:06 pm

    alohafri wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    alohafri wrote:
    sharpy wrote:Im betting Ct has a democratic legislature and governor. The problem with these kind of laws is that they change when the ruling party changes. 

    Yep on both accounts.

    They have been working on this for quite some time and to my knowledge, no state that has passed this law has gone back and undone it.

    Have those states changed party in charge?

    Not entirely.  Some of them have a GOP governor, or GOP House or Senate, but none of have changed over completely.  My guess is it'll require a full blue to red reversal for a state to undo it.
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    alohafri
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    Re: Popular vote

    Post by alohafri on Tue May 08, 2018 1:12 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    alohafri wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    alohafri wrote:
    sharpy wrote:Im betting Ct has a democratic legislature and governor. The problem with these kind of laws is that they change when the ruling party changes. 

    Yep on both accounts.

    They have been working on this for quite some time and to my knowledge, no state that has passed this law has gone back and undone it.

    Have those states changed party in charge?

    Not entirely.  Some of them have a GOP governor, or GOP House or Senate, but none of have changed over completely.  My guess is it'll require a full blue to red reversal for a state to undo it.


    Then a reversal is possible. I'll wait for the Constitutional Amendment, thank you very much.
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: Popular vote

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue May 08, 2018 1:19 pm

    alohafri wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    alohafri wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    alohafri wrote:
    sharpy wrote:Im betting Ct has a democratic legislature and governor. The problem with these kind of laws is that they change when the ruling party changes. 

    Yep on both accounts.

    They have been working on this for quite some time and to my knowledge, no state that has passed this law has gone back and undone it.

    Have those states changed party in charge?

    Not entirely.  Some of them have a GOP governor, or GOP House or Senate, but none of have changed over completely.  My guess is it'll require a full blue to red reversal for a state to undo it.


    Then a reversal is possible. I'll wait for the Constitutional Amendment, thank you very much.

    Oh, totally.  A reversal is highly possible.  Although, nothing has happened yet, so there's nothing to reverse.  I very much expect that someday, some state will turn red enough to undo themselves on this, but it's also possible that they'll not see it as a priority and won't push very hard.  The general public generally likes the idea of a popular vote deciding the president.  Thusly, if a state like Maryland turns red in all three chambers, their citizenry may not exactly like hearing that their congress-folks are pushing to undo something that a lot of people kinda like.  I'm not sure the average citizen of Maryland is going to like hearing that their congressman voted to strip away much of their voting power.  Remember, from an electoral college voting power perspective, votes in states like Utah or Wyoming are 2 to 4 times as valuable as a vote in a more populated state.  Is a Maryland citizen going to like seeing their voting power being changed and reduced to be less valuable?  Can a GOP congressman run on that?  I think I could run as a Dem candidate AGAINST that kind of thing.
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    alohafri
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    Re: Popular vote

    Post by alohafri on Tue May 08, 2018 1:31 pm

    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    alohafri wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    alohafri wrote:
    SoxIlliniRob wrote:
    alohafri wrote:
    sharpy wrote:Im betting Ct has a democratic legislature and governor. The problem with these kind of laws is that they change when the ruling party changes. 

    Yep on both accounts.

    They have been working on this for quite some time and to my knowledge, no state that has passed this law has gone back and undone it.

    Have those states changed party in charge?

    Not entirely.  Some of them have a GOP governor, or GOP House or Senate, but none of have changed over completely.  My guess is it'll require a full blue to red reversal for a state to undo it.


    Then a reversal is possible. I'll wait for the Constitutional Amendment, thank you very much.

    Oh, totally.  A reversal is highly possible.  Although, nothing has happened yet, so there's nothing to reverse.  I very much expect that someday, some state will turn red enough to undo themselves on this, but it's also possible that they'll not see it as a priority and won't push very hard.  The general public generally likes the idea of a popular vote deciding the president.  Thusly, if a state like Maryland turns red in all three chambers, their citizenry may not exactly like hearing that their congress-folks are pushing to undo something that a lot of people kinda like.  I'm not sure the average citizen of Maryland is going to like hearing that their congressman voted to strip away much of their voting power.  Remember, from an electoral college voting power perspective, votes in states like Utah or Wyoming are 2 to 4 times as valuable as a vote in a more populated state.  Is a Maryland citizen going to like seeing their voting power being changed and reduced to be less valuable?  Can a GOP congressman run on that?  I think I could run as a Dem candidate AGAINST that kind of thing.

    Yes, but on the other hand, Utah with its 6 electoral votes and Wyoming with its 3, makes little difference in the grand scheme of the Electoral College. "Oh boy, my one 'powerful' vote was able to push my state up to three votes for my candidate. He still lost by a shit ton, but my vote weighed heavily." I just don't buy it. 
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: Popular vote

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue May 08, 2018 3:53 pm

    It's not just Utah and Wyoming.  It's all of the less populated states.  It adds up to something pretty significant.  Maybe it's one or two electoral votes too many in Utah, but it's also 10, 20, or 50 too few in Texas, NY, Illinois, Penn, or Calif.  Just one or two states doesn't really add up to much.  Once you put the Dakotas and Montana and utah and Idaho and 15 or so other states together, you have about 40% of the country's population with about 50% of the electoral college power.  Or better yet, if you were to assign the same value of a vote to people in the bigger states, you'd suddenly have the winner needing about 400 Electoral votes from a pool of 799 or so (hypothetically).  

    I'm not so against the electoral college as I am against the improper assigning of electoral votes in a non-proportional manner according to population.  I can't help but believe that one person = one vote is a pretty simple concept to sell to the masses.


    Last edited by SoxIlliniRob on Tue May 08, 2018 6:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    cream919
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    Re: Popular vote

    Post by cream919 on Tue May 08, 2018 6:04 pm

    Then a reversal is possible. I'll wait for the Constitutional Amendment, thank you very much.


    **********************************************************************


    I'll have my great great great granddaughter slap a sticky note on your tombstone to tell you it's passed. 


    There ain't a goddam republican politician in this country that wants to see the thing changed. It's worked to their advantage twice in the past 5 presidential elections and you think red states want this thing repealed?
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    SoxIlliniRob
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    Re: Popular vote

    Post by SoxIlliniRob on Tue May 08, 2018 6:17 pm

    cream919 wrote:Then a reversal is possible. I'll wait for the Constitutional Amendment, thank you very much.


    **********************************************************************


    I'll have my great great great granddaughter slap a sticky note on your tombstone to tell you it's passed. 


    There ain't a goddam republican politician in this country that wants to see the thing changed. It's worked to their advantage twice in the past 5 presidential elections and you think red states want this thing repealed?

    Hell no.  No red state is going to pass this.  It's going to take for some more states to go blue and pass it.  To be exact, they need for 98 more electoral votes worth of blue states to pass it.  

    For example, states that haven't addressed this, but who potentially could would be Oregon, New Mexico, Virginia (almost blue), Michigan (could potentially go blue someday), Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin.  If about half of those states passed this law, it becomes the new way we elect presidents.  Some of those aforementioned states have partially passed it.  Minny, Penn, North Carolina, Alaska and Ohio have passed it in at least one or two state chambers but haven't passed it into law.  I'm not predicting this will happen anytime soon, but I think it's closer than you're giving credit.  States that have passed it are Cali, Illinois, Rhode Isl, Wash, NY, Vermont, Mass, NJ, Maryland and Conn. 

    A massive blue wave or two could potentially get a couple more over the finish line so that they're only a couple/few states away.  Not holding my breath.

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